Premier League relegation: The stats behind Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland’s probabilities within the prime flight

For as long as there’s been relegation, supporters have been trying to predict the minimum number of points needed to avoid it.

So what should Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland and others be aiming for?

Traditionally, 40 points are said to be enough for Premier League survival.

That’s because only three teams have ever reached the 40-point mark in a 38-game season and gone down.

They are: West Ham with 42 in 2002-03, Sunderland with 40 points in 1996-97 and Bolton with 40 points the following year.

But, given all three of those seasons were well over 20 years ago, is it time to set a lower benchmark?

Over the past 10 seasons, the average points collected by the team in 18th – a total you’d need to better in order to stay up – has been exactly 32.

Tottenham finished 17th last term with 38 points but, because of the weaknesses of the promoted trio, they would still have beaten the drop with just 26.

The season before, 17th-placed Nottingham Forest managed 32 points – a tally which included a four points deduction – but actually only needed 27 to stay up.