T.J. Watt is this era’s sack king. Since being drafted in 2017, no player has more quarterback takedowns than his 108 – and counting. Already the Pittsburgh Steelers’ all-time sack leader with a first-ballot Hall of Fame resume, Watt doesn’t have many individual questions left to answer.
One big question remains unanswered: How many sacks will T.J. Watt finish with for his career? Bruce Smith holds the all-time record with 200. Can Watt challenge it?
Math the math, and Watt needs 92.5 to surpass Smith’s mark. If Watt plays another five seasons, it’ll require an average of 18.5 per season. Even for a player like Watt capable of reaching 20 per season, it’s a pace that’s hard to ask of any player in their mid-30s. In NFL history, only eight players have recorded even 15 sacks in a single season age 33 or older. The last example came 25 years ago when Miami’s Trace Armstrong hit 16.5 at age 35.
Point is, Watt will likely need a longer career than that in order to threaten Smith’s mark. Assume he plays seven more seasons into his late 30s. That puts him on a per-season pace of 13.2 sacks, a more attainable number but one that requires him to do it for longer.
The good news is that football has a history of productive pass rushers well into their 30s. Michael Strahan had 18.5 sacks at age 32, 11.5 at age 34, and nine at age 36. Julius Peppers notched 11.5 at age 32, 10.5 at age 35, and 11 at age 37. Bruce Smith himself played through his age-40 season, reaching double-digits from age 30 to age 35 and recording nine of them at age 39 with the Washington Redskins.
Not all of those examples broach the 13-sack pace Watt needs, but they’re proof that it’s possible to get close. Elite players like Watt over a 17-game season have a chance to get over that hump. And the closer Watt gets, the more motivation he’ll have to keep playing and challenge for the crown.
Still, 200.5 sacks is a lofty goal. What’s more realistic? If Watt can average 13 sacks over his next five seasons, that gives him 173 for a career. Assuming no one else surpasses him, Myles Garrett is currently the only player close, Watt would rank third in official sack history behind Smith and Reggie White’s 198 (Deacon Jones has an unofficial 173.5).
Reaching third place means hitting 160.5, just ahead of the late Kevin Greene. If Watt plays five more seasons, that means he must average just 10.5 sacks per season. That’s not just realistic but seems likely to occur. Injuries and decline in play are always looming factors but Watt’s ability to record sacks in bunches means he could approach third place before his extension expires.
Expectations for Watt should be a 10th-place finish on the official list – 140 sacks will do that. It’s realistic to think he can press on for 160, and if anyone is going to reach the 200 club, it’s him.
The Steelers are rebuilding, or reloading, whatever they feel the need to call it, after another disappointment last season. Though they limped into the playoffs, they once again embarrassed themselves therein.
Just like last year, the biggest question hanging over the Steelers is the quarterback question. While they ultimately traded George Pickens, they have other decisions to make. The 2025 NFL Draft class is now behind us, so most of the roster construction is complete.
But we still have a long offseason ahead for Steelers football, or football in shorts. At least we can finally put the Aaron Rodgers situation to bed and move on to other things. Now it’s about evaluating the roster in place and filling holes as we go.
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