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Mike Clay
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Eagles.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Report, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka
Shadow Report: Expect A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s top corner shadowed most weeks last season, including a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a strong 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets in the game. Evans was out for the Week 8 meeting between the teams, but Terrell also shadowed him in Week 5 back in 2022 (where Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), as well as in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.
Some quick math shows that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG in the four meetings with Terrell, having reached 20 points twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan both out, Evans will be Mayfield’s top target and Terrell hasn’t been much of a detriment to his success. Evans should be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie running mate Egbuka should also be in lineups.
Over/under: 49.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 64% (7th highest)
Projected score: Bengals 27, Browns 20
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku
Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has yet to sign with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford played six full games as the team’s lead back last season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy points. He was also the team’s lead back for most of 2023 and finished 16th in RB fantasy points (25th in PPG) while piling up 1,132 yards and nine TDs. It’s yet to be seen how much Sampson will contribute, but Ford is safe to view as a RB2/flex option this week against a suspect Bengals defense.
Over/under: 47 (6th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 73% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Colts 23, Dolphins 22
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Shadow Report: Free agency and injuries have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, recently signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. as the probable Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a fast start with Daniel Jones under center. Upgrade the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren also makes for a fine starting option in his NFL debut.
Over/under: 44.8 (9th highest)
Win probability: Colts 55% (14th highest)
Projected score: Patriots 25, Raiders 19
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
Shadow Report: Stefon Diggs is a bit risky as he makes his New England debut while returning from last season’s torn ACL. The good news is that he has an appealing Week 1 matchup at home against a suspect Raiders cornerbacks room. Ex-Packer Eric Stokes will be joined on the perimeter by third-round rookie Darien Porter and slot man Darnay Holmes. Diggs and fellow starting WRs DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte can be upgraded.
Over/under: 44.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 69% (4th highest)
Projected score: Cardinals 24, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round pick — appeared in seven games as a rookie and did not show particularly well. He completed 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and managed four TDs and five INTs. Especially against an improved Arizona defense, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ pass catchers very risky fantasy plays. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on five career targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) are no better than flex options in deeper leagues.
Over/under: 42.1 (15th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 68% (6th highest)
Projected score: Steelers 20, Jets 18
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson
Fantasy scoop: The lowest projected game total of the week features two good (perhaps great) defenses and not many palatable fantasy starters. That includes the running backs on both teams. You’d be hard pressed to bench Hall after selecting him in the fourth-ish round (which is why he’s listed as a lineup lock despite the tough matchup), but a Week 1 dud shouldn’t be a surprise — especially with Braelon Allen expected to be involved. Jaylen Warren will work as the lead back in Pittsburgh, but he’s never previously operated as a feature back and figures to defer some work to Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Kaleb Johnson. Warren is best valued as a flex.
Over/under: 38 (Lowest)
Win probability: Steelers 60% (10th highest)
Projected score: Commanders 26, Giants 20
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy scoop: If you drafted well, you shouldn’t need to rely on any of the running backs in this game … and that’s a good thing. Tracy is the best and safest option of the bunch, but he didn’t sport much upside last season and it’s yet to be seen how much work he’ll defer to fourth-round rookie Cam Skattebo. Washington traded away Brian Robinson Jr. last month and we could be looking at a three-headed committee with Austin Ekeler, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr. Ekeler’s receiving chops make him the safest option of the three, whereas Croskey-Merritt is most the explosive and Rodriguez the best bet to steal a touchdown.
Shadow Report: Marshon Lattimore might travel with Nabers in the opener. The two didn’t meet last season, but Lattimore has a history of shadowing top receivers and did so against both A.J. Brown and Mike Evans after joining Washington late last season. Despite Lattimore’s impressive career résumé, he hasn’t been quite as effective (or consistently healthy) in recent years and his presence isn’t enough to affect Nabers’ fantasy appeal.
Over/under: 46.2 (7th highest)
Win probability: Commanders 68% (5th highest)
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Panthers 21
Lineup locks: Chuba Hubbard, Brian Thomas Jr., Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter
Fantasy scoop: Choosing between the Jaguars’ running backs for your Week 1 RB2/flex slot? Good luck. The Jacksonville backfield is one of the most uncertain situations in the game, with veterans Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby battling with rookies Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. for work. The most likely Week 1 scenario is that Bigsby will pace the unit in carries and goal line work, with Etienne a hair behind in carries and the most involved back in passing situations. Tuten might not see much work in his pro debut, but it might not take him long to emerge if either or both of the veterans struggle. This is an appealing matchup, so if you’re really digging deep, Etienne would be your best option from this quartet.
Over/under: 45 (8th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 60% (9th highest)
Projected score: Broncos 25, Titans 18
Lineup locks: Bo Nix, Tony Pollard, Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram
Shadow Report: A slow start to the season could be in order for both No. 1 receivers, as shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed (on Sutton) and Pat Surtain II (on Ridley) is probable. Sneed missed most of 2024 due to injury, but he shadowed often prior to getting hurt, including matchups with Garrett Wilson and Tyreek Hill. Sneed was elite as a full-time shadow corner with the Chiefs in 2023 (including holding Sutton to a single catch on 18 routes in two meetings). Perhaps the league’s top corner, Surtain shadowed in eight games last season and held six of those opposing receivers to single-digit fantasy points. Both Sutton and Ridley can remain in lineups, but there’s added “bust risk” in this matchup.
Over/under: 43 (14th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 75% (Highest)
Projected score: Seahawks 23, 49ers 22
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: The 49ers’ WR room is in a state of chaos, with Brandon Aiyuk (PUP), Demarcus Robinson (suspension) and Jacob Cowing (IR) all out, and Jauan Jennings and Jordan Watkins both uncertain for the opener. Assuming Jennings is able to play, he and Ricky Pearsall should be heavily utilized, and both make for viable WR3/flex options. Jennings carries some risk after missing substantial offseason work, but last season’s 25% target share suggests he’ll remain a big part of the offense. Pearsall came on strong at the end of 2024 and has operated as the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver throughout the offseason. The 2024 first-round pick is well-positioned for a breakout campaign.
Over/under: 44.8 (10th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 56% (13th highest)
Projected score: Lions 26, Packers 23
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: With Christian Watson (PUP) sidelined and Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Savion Williams all battling injuries of their own, the Packers’ WR room is a bit of a mystery here in Week 1. One thing we should be able to count on, however, is a big role for rookie Matthew Golden. The speedy first-round pick is expected to immediately slide in as Jordan Love’s top perimeter target, with Romeo Doubs on the opposite boundary and, if healthy, Reed in the slot. Facing off with Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed won’t be an easy task, but Green Bay figures to be throwing the ball plenty in what should be a competitive game against Detroit. Golden is your best fantasy option from this Green Bay WR room and can be valued as a WR3/flex.
Over/under: 49 (5th highest)
Win probability: Lions 59% (11th highest)
Projected score: Rams 23, Texans 21
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
Fantasy scoop: Joe Mixon (PUP, foot) is out for at least the first four games of the season, which opens the door for some combination of Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale and rookie Woody Marks to handle Houston’s backfield workload. Chubb is the safest bet to handle the bulk of the carries against the Rams, but won’t get much work as a receiver. It’s unclear if the 29-year-old can be effective after struggling on 107 touches in Cleveland last season. You can likely do better in your flex slot. Pierce and pass-catching specialist Marks are intriguing wild cards and, while neither should be in fantasy lineups this week, they make for find end-of-bench stashes.
Over/under: 44 (13th highest)
Win probability: Rams 58% (12th highest)
Projected score: Ravens 28, Bills 27
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, James Cook, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
Fantasy scoop: This game is fairly straightforward from a fantasy standpoint, leaving Buffalo’s wide receivers as the only conundrum when evaluating your WR3/flex options. Khalil Shakir is the safest of the bunch, but he lacks upside, primarily due to a very limited role near the goal line (only seven career TDs and five career end zone targets). Coleman had an uneven rookie season, but the 2024 second-round pick is a breakout candidate and could quickly emerge as Allen’s top target. Both receivers are in the flex discussion, but will have their hands full against a terrific Baltimore defense that includes cornerbacks Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey and, if he’s able to play, Jaire Alexander.
Over/under: 54.5 (Highest)
Win probability: Ravens 53% (15th highest)
Projected score: Bears 22, Vikings 22
Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, T.J. Hockenson
Shadow Report: Jaylon Johnson is a strong bet to shadow Jefferson this week. When these teams met in Week 12 last season, Johnson shadowed Jefferson on 19 of his 37 routes, including 17 of 23 on the perimeter and two of 14 in the slot. Jefferson was held in check, posting a 2-27-0 receiving line on five targets. Johnson shadowed only part of the time in the Week 15 showdown and Jefferson was better (7-73-1 on 13 targets), though most of that game was spent away from Johnson’s coverage. Johnson is a good corner, so perhaps the “bust” potential is higher than usual for Jefferson, but you’re obviously starting the best player on your fantasy team.
Fantasy scoop: Speaking of Minnesota receivers, Jordan Addison is suspended for three games to open the 2025 season, which positions veteran Adam Thielen for a sizable role in his return to the team. Jalen Nailor and rookie Tai Felton very well could factor in, but Thielen showed he still had life late last season when he averaged 7.7 targets per game while posting 15-plus fantasy points in four of his final six outings with Carolina. We don’t want to get too carried away here, as Thielen will be no higher than third in line for targets (behind Jefferson and Hockenson) and is facing a good Chicago defense. Still, if you’re eyeing a WR3/flex lottery ticket, Thielen is a viable option.
Over/under: 44.1 (12th highest)
Win probability: Bears 51% (Lowest)
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