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Jordan Reid
Sure, there are more than nine months until the 2026 NFL draft starts in Pittsburgh, but it’s never too early to discuss the No. 1 pick. And there’s plenty to talk about.
Last year’s journey to No. 1 saw quarterback Cam Ward turn from a sleeper prospect to the unquestioned top quarterback in the 2025 draft. Will we see another QB come out of (almost) nowhere to be the first pick? Will one of the top quarterbacks below get it? Will Arch Manning explode at Texas and join his uncles as a No. 1 overall pick? Or will a non-quarterback get the top spot for the first time since 2022?
I picked 14 players who could be that top pick in Pittsburgh, adding percentage odds for each player. I’m starting with one of my favorite quarterbacks in this class, but don’t overlook those at 1%. That’s where Ward was slated this time last year.
Jump to a tier:
Serious contenders (4)
Potential risers (3)
Long shots (7)
Serious contenders
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: NFL teams constantly fall in love with traits at the top of the draft, and Sellers has some of the best traits in the class. The 6-foot-3, 242-pound dual-threat quarterback can not only beat defenses with his powerful arm (2,534 passing yards and 18 touchdowns to seven interceptions as a 19-year-old redshirt freshman) but also with his legs (674 rushing yards and seven touchdowns).
Sellers showed drastic improvement as a first-year starter, helping the Gamecocks win six of their final seven games last season. His 65.6% completion percentage was also encouraging considering his inexperience and points to further improvement in 2025.
He sometimes throws passes that are too hot to handle and holds the ball too long in the pocket — his 3.06-second average time to throw was the 11th slowest nationally in 2024. He’ll also need to improve his ball security, as he fumbled 11 times (lost six) last season. But if Sellers can fine-tune these things and continue his growth, he has the tools to be the top pick in the 2026 draft.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: I had Klubnik as the No. 1 pick in my Way-too-Early mock draft in May and feel he can take advantage of arguably the most talented roster in the country. He wasn’t on many draft radars after a disappointing sophomore season in 2023, but Klubnik made a major leap as a junior, finishing with 3,639 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He ended the season with a flourish, throwing for 336 yards and three touchdowns in the College Football Playoff first round against Texas.
Klubnik isn’t big (6-foot-2, 210 pounds), but he plays with a strong platform and progresses through reads quickly. No matter how muddy the pocket gets, he’s able to make tough throws due to his balance, rhythm and repeatable mechanics. There is debate about his arm strength among NFL evaluators, though.
“I think he has enough to be a fine starter on the next level, but his setup will always have to be near perfect to get the best out of him,” an AFC executive from a QB-needy team said this summer.
Klubnik is set up to make another leap, as Clemson returns its top three receivers (Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore). He’ll have a chance to make a big impression early this season when the Tigers play LSU in Week 1.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: Allar is a toolsy passer who took a major leap in 2024 under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, improving his completion percentage from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5%. He has the size (6-foot-5, 238 pounds) and strong arm that scouts desire and showed more confidence in those physical traits. He isn’t shy about using his arm strength to test tight windows and has good mobility for his size.
Despite Allar’s progress last season, many scouts feel he still needs to work on his ball placement. He’ll be tested this season, as Penn State lost first-round tight end Tyler Warren and has multiple new receivers that Allar will have to get acclimated to.
Evaluators also want to see Allar perform better in big games, something he’s struggled with in his two seasons as a starter. Games against Oregon (Sept. 27) and Ohio State (Nov. 1) are paramount. If he can play more like he did against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game last season (280 combined yards and four touchdowns) and less like he did against Notre Dame in the CFP semifinals (12-for-23, 135 yards and a backbreaking late interception), Allar could be a top-10 pick … or higher.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: Nussmeier performed well last season in succeeding 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Nussmeier is a fearless passer who produces highlights with his uncanny ability to see big plays and throw his receivers open.
The 6-2 200-pounder’s arm is more flexible than powerful, but his great pocket vision and anticipation on throws to intermediate and deep areas of the fields stand out. He doesn’t take many sacks (his 2.9% sack percentage was 12th lowest in the FBS), but can be reckless and put the ball in harm’s way — especially after breaking the pocket. This showed against ranked teams, as he had three games of two or more interceptions against those opponents.
While Nussmeier’s aggressiveness can work against him, he has the smarts, accuracy and anticipation to be a top pick in the draft. Scouts will want to see more consistency and how he adjusts to a new set of receivers out of the transfer portal. He’ll be tested right away against Clemson in Week 1.
Potential risers
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%
Why he could be the top pick: Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana, where he enters a quarterback-friendly offense. Kurtis Rourke transitioned from the MAC to Curt Cignetti’s offense and was drafted in the seventh round of this past draft. The ceiling for the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza is even higher.
“I really liked Mendoza’s tape,” an NFC area scout said. “He’s the one to circle that could be a bigger riser, and Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs.”
Mendoza threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions and blends a strong arm with plus mobility for his size. He can stand and deliver in the pocket with ease and is extremely accurate — his 5.1% off-target percentage last season was the best in the FBS. He also excelled throwing outside of the pocket, with a 91.1 QBR. Sometimes he’ll break the pocket prematurely instead of allowing concepts to fully develop, so scouts would like to see him be more patient in those situations.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 10%
Why he could be the top pick: While quarterbacks are most often selected with the No. 1 overall pick, edge rushers grab the top spot occasionally. Travon Walker was the most recent example in 2022. The 6-3, 265-pound Parker is the most likely non-quarterback to be selected first, combining a good first step with strong hands to disengage at the point of attack.
Those hands help him win by overpowering blockers, and he finished his sophomore season with 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, second-most in the FBS among defensive linemen. He has also been a turnover creator, forcing four fumbles last season (also second in the FBS) and stands out in a loaded Clemson defensive front.
“I know [defensive tackle Peter] Woods gets a lot of the love, but Parker is the one that could be drafted first off of that defense this year,” an AFC assistant told me this summer.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 5%
Why he could be the top pick: There’s a lot of projection here, as Manning has only two starts and 95 passing attempts in his college career. Because of that, I don’t believe Manning will be in the 2026 draft. But he has traits that could make him an intriguing option atop the draft if he has a big season.
The glimpses we saw last season were promising, as he threw for 939 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions while rushing for 106 yards and four scores. At 6-4, 222 pounds, Manning has the frame scouts covet and uses it effectively. He has a picture-perfect base and smooth delivery, and his dual-threat capability forces defenses to account for his running.
There is plenty for Manning to work on. He must become better at progressing past his first read, as his tendency to stick to it leads to bad decisions and forced throws. He also needs to use his mobility more and be more willing to scramble on dropbacks. That’s why I expect him to stick with Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, one of the best quarterback developers in the nation, and not rush to the NFL.
Long shots
The ‘out-of-nowhere’ quarterback
Since Joe Burrow’s magical 2019 season catapulted him to the top in the 2020 draft, it has been common for under-the-radar quarterbacks to shoot up draft boards high into Round 1. Ward was one of four quarterbacks we identified in this section a year ago. This time around, there are two passers with Day 3 grades who could quickly rise.
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (2%): Mateer arrives at OU with high expectations after finishing with 3,139 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions at Washington State in 2024. He’s one of the most competitive and confident passers I’ve studied on tape in this class and makes downfield throws with ease. Mateer is also mobile, running for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. If he thrives against a schedule that has a Week 2 matchup with Michigan plus eight SEC games, his stock will rise.
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (2%): Cam Skattebo got most of the attention during Arizona State’s massive turnaround last season, but Leavitt also played a big part, passing for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions after transferring from Michigan State. He is a calm passer who can spread and shred defenses. With Skattebo off to the NFL, Leavitt will be the focal point of the Sun Devils’ bid to repeat as Big 12 champions.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Woods is currently the top-ranked player on my board, and the 6-3, 315-pounder is the catalyst of one of the nation’s best defenses. But it’s been 31 years since a defensive tackle was taken with the top pick (Dan Wilkinson, 1994) and six years since an interior defensive lineman was picked in the top 5 (Quinnen Williams, 2019).
Woods played a lot off the edge last season but stayed disruptive as a run defender. He had only three sacks last season as a sophomore, but his explosive power allowed him to penetrate the backfield as a pass rusher. He’ll get more snaps inside this season as a 3-technique under new defensive coordinator Tom Allen. If he can convert more pass rushes into sacks, Woods could be a top-five pick come April.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Fano was the most consistent blocker on tape in 2024, which is why he’s my top-rated offensive tackle. The 6-3, 302-pounder needs to add weight, but he has the quickness and fluidity to matchup with speedy edge rushers and the power to bury defenders in run blocking.
Fano is also versatile, transitioning to right tackle as a sophomore in 2024 and allowing only one sack after playing left tackle the season before. If he can pack on pounds and maintain his level of intensity and lower-half suddenness, he could be the first tackle picked in a deep class of prospects.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Proctor has the size (6-7, 360 pounds) to go very high in the draft, and his best tape is one of a top-10 pick. But he’s a polarizing prospect because of his inconsistent play.
At his best, he has the power and pop in his hands to quickly overwhelm rushers at the point of attack. He’s forceful in the run game and generates movement with ease. His pass protection is where he needs improvement, as there are hot and cold spurts in Proctor’s play. Scouts want to see him play to his potential more as a pass blocker. If he does, he could be the first blocker off the board.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: World is the ultimate wild card in this exercise, as the 6-8, 312-pound tackle is stepping up in competition after transferring from Nevada this offseason. But his traits are outstanding. World is an above-average athlete and has foot quickness that is among the best of any blocker in the 2026 class.
Scouts want to see him put all his traits together. Even though World didn’t allow a sack last season, he drew eight penalties (five for holding, three for unsportsmanlike conduct). He must reduce the penalties while handling the bump up in competition. If he can combine his quick feet with his lower-half suddenness and flashes in the run game, World will be a player to watch early in Round 1.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Since the common draft era started in 1967, there hasn’t been a safety drafted with the No. 1 pick. That’s a trend that’s likely to continue, but it says a lot that Downs is somewhat in the conversation.
The 6-foot, 205-pounder transferred from Alabama — where he was stellar as a freshman in 2023 — to Ohio State last year, helping the Buckeyes to a national championship. He had 77 tackles last season and is a wrap-up-and-finish tackler against the run. He also excels in coverage, allowing only 28.6% of passes to be completed in his coverage (fifth-best in the FBS). Downs also has two touchdown returns in his career.
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