Research: First Quarter Differentials And Profitable – Does It Matter?

An interesting question was posed on a recent Terrible Podcast: What is the impact of fast starts on both sides of the ball on winning? Today’s article aims to see how it has affected the Pittsburgh Steelers and their peers around the NFL.

I wanted to look back at enough data to be substantial, so the last decade (since 2015) will be included. Here is a visual of the teams’ first-quarter points scored (offense) and points allowed (defense):

We can clearly see that 2024 was a particularly poor year for Pittsburgh, with a -64 first-quarter point differential. In fact, it is the seventh-worst mark of the last decade, really adding context to the team’s issues starting slow recently. This includes having a negative differential each of the last four seasons, which likely isn’t surprising to Steelers fans.

Overall, it hasn’t been ideal over the span either, with a positive differential in just three of 10 seasons. Those came in 2016 (+33), 2017 (+14), and 2020 (+8). As you might expect, these seasons featured their best regular-season winning percentages of the decade. But Pittsburgh’s last playoff win came in 2016 (two postseason wins).

League-wide, 90 of the 130 postseason teams in the span had a positive first-quarter point differential (69.2-percent). This illustrates that first-quarter point differentials are not the most indicative stat for the ultimate goal of a Super Bowl. It certainly aids the cause, though, and the Steelers need all the help they can get to return to their historical winning ways soon.

While first-quarter point differentials are a puzzle piece to several key components of a successful team, I was curious to see how Lombardi winners did in those respective regular seasons. Eight of the last ten Super Bowl Champions had a positive first-half point differential, with the exception of the 2020-21 Buccaneers and the 2024-25 Eagles last year.

So, far from a meaningless stat, and Pittsburgh being on the other end of the spectrum is not helping their cause. The consequences are clear, including playing from behind and potentially being forced out of the game plan, which are some all too familiar sights in the Steel City.

Obviously, there is more to glean when diving deeper than the raw first-quarter point differentials. Namely, seeing how points scored (offense) and points allowed (defense) break down within it:

For many intent Steelers fans, it won’t come as a surprise that the offense has largely been underwhelming. Only 2 of 10 Pittsburgh offenses have been above the league mean since 2015. As anticipated, it came early in the span (2016 and 2017), a clearer stretch of team success, and is an important factor that could bode well for getting back to that.

What may come as the biggest surprise of the whole study is the Steelers’ defense falling off a cliff in the last 2024 season. Remember the beginning of the article, when I outlined Pittsburgh’s seventh-worst first quarter overall point differential? While the offense was far below average, the defense was fifth-worst of the last ten years. Whoof.

This is a far cry from the unit that was above the league average in 7 of 10 seasons the last decade, allowing 112 first-quarter points. Just 21 of 320 teams (6.6 percent) allowed more than 100 first-quarter points over the span. This is very un-Steelers-like and should be much higher on the team’s priority list to achieve their postseason goals.

Pair this with a 2024 Pittsburgh offense that bested only their 2019 and 2021 seasons (with just 48 points scored). 2019 was an injury-riddled year at quarterback, and 2021 was QB Ben Roethlisberger’s final year, certainly not at his pinnacle.

It’s clear as day that the Pittsburgh Steelers have dropped the ball hard in the first quarter, particularly last season, as the numbers illustrate painfully. We also see a strong correlation to winning teams that are strong in first-quarter point differentials.

It’s time for Pittsburgh to get on board.