Examine: Will Aaron Rodgers Repair Pittsburgh’s Crimson Zone Offense?

Continuing to evaluate new Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers, today’s topic is red zone passing. It’s a shortened area of the field where accuracy is extremely important to convert the opportunity with a trip to the end zone.

The goal is to see what Rodgers offered last season in comparison to the top 25 QBs in red zone attempts. What could that mean for 2025?

For starters, Rodgers had 83 attempts inside the 20, fifth-most in the NFL. So, there were ample opportunities compared to his peers. In comparison, 2024 Steelers starter Russell Wilson had 45 attempts inside the 20, but missed the first six games of the season.

That would extrapolate to roughly 70 red zone passing attempts in a full 17 game season, still shy of Rodgers in as many games played. The hope is that Rodgers brings more red zone trips to Pittsburgh, increasing the ultimate goal of scoring more points.

With opportunities laid out, let’s look into performance. Here are completion rates to gauge accuracy in the toughest areas of the field. Included are inside the 20 and inside the 10 completion rates:

Neither qualifying QB was ideal in the red zone last season. Wilson and Rodgers had similar inside the 20 completion rates (51.1, 50.6), landing in the bottom five ranks. Rodgers’ 50.6 percent was third-worst and isn’t comforting to the hope of an improved Steelers red zone offense.

While still under the mean, Rodgers did find more success inside the 10, where the blades of grass are minimal. His 47.5 completion rate inside the 10 ranked 18th, a five-spot improvement from inside the 20. This, along with six of the last 10 seasons being above 50 percent in both, point to his ability to potentially look better in 2025.

This includes a recent four-year stretch from 2019-2022 prior to his Achilles injury early in 2023. Some speculate that factor makes his pre-injury stats irrelevant, but to ignore the resume entirely is extreme. Yes, his 2024 season with the Jets was largely disappointing, but the potential for a turnaround is there.

I also wanted to provide red zone touchdown rates (the percentage of pass attempts that were TDs), in the same inside the 20 and 10 scenarios:

Unfortunately, it’s the same area of the chart for the players in our sights. Rodgers did have the better marks of the two, starting with a 22.9 red zone TD rate (16th), and 35 percent inside the 10 (15th). Similar rankings that didn’t feature the jump on the scoreboard that his completion rate did.

More specifically, Rodgers had 19 inside the 20 TDs compared to two interceptions, and 14 inside the 20 touchdowns with just one INT. Both TD totals tied for ninth last season, but the touchdown rates on the visual emphasizes less expected production given his playing time.

While this is true, Rodgers had better marks than Pittsburgh in 2024. Wilson had a 22.2 inside the 20 TD rate, tying for 19th, a few spots below Rodgers. The bigger gap once again was inside the 10, where Wilson was 27.8 percent and third-worst, with Rodgers landing nine spots higher.

The fact that Rodgers was clearly better inside the 10, in the tightest of windows, has me optimistic that he could provide an improved red zone offense for the 2025 Pittsburgh Steelers. Adding to this feeling is seeing the majority of his red zone production during his last decade in the NFL being above the line.

The 2024 season was less than ideal for both Pittsburgh and Rodgers. But the new pairing looks to right the ship on the scoreboard, impacted greatly by red zone success. Rodgers has certainly proven capable, and here’s to hoping that’s in store this year.