2025 NFL sack projections: Prime 50 cross rushers, finest bets

Five electric games from Aidan Hutchinson before his season-ending leg injury weren’t enough to earn him accolades in 2024. But those performances affect what we think of him going forward, and it’s a big reason why Hutchinson tops the 2025 edition of our annual NFL sack projections.

This is the fifth year we’ve run our sack forecast for veteran pass rushers. The statistical model is based on a player’s past performance and his situation entering the season. The model’s inputs include:

• Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons

• Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN’s Mike Clay

• Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats

• Past sack rates for opposing quarterbacks on each pass rusher’s 2025 schedule

• Team win totals from the betting market

• How often a player lines up at edge vs. the interior

• Age

To be included, players must be defensive linemen or edge rushers. They also must have rushed the passer at least 150 times in one of the past two seasons, rushed the passer on at least 25% of their snaps last season and be projected to play at least 250 snaps this season. Rookies were excluded. The model forecasts the mean outcome for a player’s season, and while the numbers might strike you as low, consider that this is projecting the average of all outcomes for each player — including injuries.

Let’s dive into the top 10 sack projections, other notable forecasts and a few bets the model likes at ESPN BET. You’ll find the full top-50 list below, as well.

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Projected top 10 | Full top-50 list
More notable projections to watch
Interesting bets

Projected 2025 sacks: 12.2
ESPN BET over/under: 14.0
2024 sack total: 7.5

Hutchinson has an unusual profile for a projection leader. He’s coming off a season with only 7.5 sacks, and his forecasted sack total would be a career high. But Hutchinson took a leap into an entirely different tier in 2024. Those 7.5 sacks came in only five games and came with a mind-boggling 35% pass rush win rate (Danielle Hunter led all qualifying players last season with a 26% PRWR).

Doing that over five games isn’t as impressive as doing it over an entire season, but it gives us a sense of Hutchinson’s upside that wasn’t quite so clear a year ago (he was 15th with a 9.0 projection in last year’s exercise). That Hutchinson is only 25 years old, plays a ton and is on a good team all work in his favor, too. But will new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard blitz as much as Aaron Glenn did? If so, that would further boost Hutchinson’s sack forecast (the model assumes an average blitz rate for new coordinators).

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Projected 2025 sacks: 12.0
ESPN BET over/under: Not listed
2024 sack total: 12.0

Parsons has been remarkably consistent, falling between 12 and 14 sacks in each of his four seasons. But one of these years — perhaps 2025 — he’s going to produce a truly gaudy total. Last season was the first time in Parsons’ career when he didn’t lead the league in pass rush win rate (he finished second).

Limited expectations for the Cowboys hinder Parsons’ projection; pass rushers have the best chance to record sacks when their opponent is losing and in desperate passing situations. If the Cowboys are going to be a middling team, Parsons might not have as many of those opportunities as he had in 2022 and 2023.

One note here: The model is naive to Parsons’ hold-in and assumes a full slate of work for him with Dallas. But obviously if Parsons misses any games, that could impact things here.

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Projected 2025 sacks: 11.4
ESPN BET over/under: Not listed
2024 sack total: 17.5

With Hendrickson coming off back-to-back 17.5-sack seasons, I can understand why Bengals fans might be confused about the 11.4-sack projection. But injuries and variance can strike anyone. And as good as Hendrickson has been over the past couple seasons, two things hold his forecast back.

First, even though he isn’t old, Hendrickson turns 31 in December. Second, the Bengals face the toughest quarterback schedule in the league in terms of sack rate. Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson (twice), Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa were in the top 10 in terms of lowest sack rate last season.

(Like Parsons, the model doesn’t factor in Hendrickson’s hold-in.)

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Projected 2025 sacks: 10.9
ESPN BET over/under: 13.0
2024 sack total: 14.0

Garrett has remarkably had double-digit sacks in seven straight seasons and 14.0 sacks in each of the past four seasons. To get back to that level in 2025, he’s going to have to overcome his situation, as the Browns are projected to be a bad football team. Bad football teams are often behind in games, which limits the number of dropbacks against them and thus sack opportunities.

On the other hand, the Browns were plenty awful last season (3-14), and Garrett still reached 14.0 sacks.

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Projected 2025 sacks: 10.7
ESPN BET over/under: 10.5
2024 sack total: 11.5

Watt’s forecast is interesting at this juncture of his career. He’s coming off a down season in which he recorded 11.5 sacks (down from 19.0 the year before) and a 19% pass rush win rate (25% in 2024), with his numbers particularly tailing off in the second half of the season. For a player who will turn 31 in October, it’s not unreasonable to ask whether last season was the beginning of a decline.

The Steelers don’t seem particularly worried, considering they handed Watt a market-setting extension that averages $41 million per year and guarantees $32 million in 2027. And by ranking him fifth, our projection model doesn’t seem to forecast a rapid decline. The model calculates what a player does for the previous two seasons, and Watt’s 2023 pass-rushing numbers were exceptional.

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Projected 2025 sacks: 10.5
ESPN BET over/under: 9.5
2024 sack total: 12.0

It might be surprising to see Greenard this high. But he has earned it based on what the model measures — both through his own production and his circumstances. Greenard recorded 12.5 and 12.0 sacks in his past two seasons in Houston and Minnesota, respectively. And he was ranked in the top 10 in pass rush win rate at edge in each of those seasons.

But Greenard has one more factor working in his favor — defensive coordinator Brian Flores. No one blitzes more than Flores (or at least no one did last season, when he blitzed 39% of the time). That buoys the Vikings’ sack forecasts.

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Projected 2025 sacks: 10.5
ESPN BET over/under: 11.0
2024 sack total: 7.5

Season-ending ankle surgery cut Crosby’s 2024 season short, which partially explains his drop to 7.5 sacks. But Crosby hardly ever leaves the field when healthy — Clay projects him to play 1,068 snaps this season, more than any other player — which boosts his sack forecast. Also, the Raiders’ projected slate of opposing quarterbacks is the most sack-happy of any team. Their schedule includes Jalen Hurts (9% sack rate last season), C.J. Stroud (8%), Drake Maye (8%), Jayden Daniels (8%) and Russell Wilson (9%) — though Wilson might not be the New York starter when the Raiders face the Giants in Week 17. Still, that set of quarterbacks ought to help Crosby get back to double-digit sacks.

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Projected 2025 sacks: 9.8
ESPN BET over/under: 10.0
2024 sack total: 12.0

Hunter is coming off a superb 2024 in which he led the league in pass rush win rate (26%) and pass-rush wins (77). Though Hunter has had strong sack seasons in the past, his pass rush win rate had always lagged behind other top pass rushers. That’s no longer the case. Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. make up a fearsome duo for opposing quarterbacks, and the upside for Hunter is higher than the 12.0 sacks he got last season — even though his mean projection is lower than that.

The two factors holding Hunter back are the sack-avoidant quarterbacks on Houston’s schedule and that he’ll turn 31 in October. An age-based decline is factored into the model.

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Projected 2025 sacks: 9.8
ESPN BET over/under: Not listed
2024 sack total: 8.0

The model sees quite a bit of significance in what a pass rusher did two years ago, which was Hines-Allen’s big 17.5-sack breakout season. Still, I’m somewhat surprised the model is this bullish on him, considering that he has never been an elite win rate player. His pass rush win rate was only a roughly average 16% in 2023. Plus, he fell off to 8.0 sacks and an 11% PRWR last season.

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Projected 2025 sacks: 9.7
ESPN BET over/under: 10.0
2024 sack total: 9.0

Bosa’s 18.5-sack season in 2022 has fallen out of the model’s purview, but there’s still plenty to like from his profile. For starters, his 9.0 sacks last season took place over only 14 games (which the model factors in), so he would be expected to reach double digits across a full 17 games. Second, Bosa’s 22% pass rush win rate at edge ranked fifth, so he consistently won his individual matchups last season on a down-to-down basis.

Other notable projections

Projected 2025 sacks: 9.7
2024 sack total: 8.5

Despite not reaching double-digit sacks in each of the past two seasons and playing on what is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, Burns almost cracked the top 10. Pass rush win rate is a big reason. He ranked fourth among all players in PRWR in 2024 (23%) and seventh in 2023 (22%).

On top of that, Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen blitzed an above-average 33% last season, and the Giants face a favorable set of quarterbacks in terms of propensity to take sacks. The fact that Burns is part of an exceptional team pass rush, which includes defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, edge Kayvon Thibodeaux and No. 3 pick Abdul Carter, surely helps, too.

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Projected 2025 sacks: 7.9
2024 sack total: 5.0

Jones’ sack total has dropped in recent seasons (from 15.5 in 2022 to 10.5 in 2023 to 5.0 last year), but he still has the top-ranked projection among defensive tackles in 2025. That’s partially because Jones’ pass rush win rate remains high (20% last season, though his 16% at defensive tackle was a dip from years past). He also plays regular snaps at edge; only 72% of his snaps in 2024 were at defensive tackle.

Jones’ age (31) works against him, but it helps that he plays for one of the NFL’s best teams and has a blitz-heavy defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo.

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Projected 2025 sacks: 6.7
2024 sack total: 8.0

The Cardinals are hoping for Sweat to significantly beat this forecast considering the four-year, $76.4 million deal they handed him this offseason. To be fair to Sweat, the model does not consider postseason data, so it’s missing his incredible Super Bowl performance.

Eight sacks wasn’t awful in the regular season, but he recorded that production on an elite team and in a season when his pass rush win rate dropped precipitously. Over the past four seasons, Sweat’s pass rush win rate has dropped from 24% to 22% to 20% to 11%. Now he’ll be playing on a team that will likely have fewer leads and lesser defensive talent beside him.

Best bets at ESPN Bet based on the model

2024 sack total: 10.5
Projected 2025 sacks: 8.2

Walker has turned into a very solid pro, totaling double-digit sacks in each of the past two seasons even though the win rates suggest he’s a better run stopper than pass rusher. Walker’s 13% PRWR last year is below average for an edge rusher. That’s likely why the model is more bearish on Walker than the betting line. The Jaguars’ lower win total of 7.5 helps the under’s cause, too.

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2024 sack total: 14.0
Projected 2025 sacks: 10.9

This is all about playing the number. As good as Garrett is — at least 14 sacks in each of the past four seasons and a top-six pass rush win rate in each of the past two — he still must overcome the team around him. The Browns are rarely going to force opponents into must-pass situations, depriving Garrett of more favorable sack opportunities. That 13.0 projection is a big number, and there are a lot of ways — age, injury and teams constantly running the ball — that could prevent him from getting there.

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Joey Bosa over 5.5 sacks (-125)

2024 sack total: 5.0
Projected 2025 sacks: 6.8

The model seems to be underestimating Bosa’s injury risk a bit, but even so, 5.5 is awfully low. When he’s on the field, Bosa has demonstrated an ability to get to the quarterback. He’s not nearly the same player he once was — his 13% pass rush win rate over the past two seasons is below average — but being on the Bills means a lot of situations in which trailing opponents will need to pass to catch up. Bosa will profit from that if he’s healthy.